tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post1004896070896505619..comments2023-12-06T00:23:28.790+11:00Comments on Press gallery reform: Andrew Elderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-29690474016111390022009-01-31T23:52:00.000+11:002009-01-31T23:52:00.000+11:00Bonsai politics, an appeal to a base that would ha...Bonsai politics, an appeal to a base that would have to be content with stunts and so lacking in confident that their impact can be anything but marginal.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-73988950393649496542009-01-30T22:44:00.000+11:002009-01-30T22:44:00.000+11:00If the Greens drop the so-called "repellent hippie...If the Greens drop the so-called "repellent hippies" in order to chase after the dubious glory of 1 or 2 reps seats, they will go the way of the Democrats, as they will become just like the two majors. They may gain one or two reps seats but lose most of their senate seats, or even all of them.<BR/><BR/>Their best long term survival plan is to maintain their points of differentiation and not be poll led populists.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-86562189047042584102009-01-20T15:56:00.000+11:002009-01-20T15:56:00.000+11:00Boundary changes, UW, account for the differences ...Boundary changes, UW, account for the differences I raised above. Greenway used to be centred on Blacktown, then boundary changes made it a safer Liberal seat by including Windsor and other towns along the Hawkesbury.<BR/><BR/>Ironic that well-planned communities vote Liberal and that unplanned, poorly-served sprawl votes Labor, eh.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-1040088058871248942009-01-19T19:11:00.000+11:002009-01-19T19:11:00.000+11:00"When the Liberals win, they attract lower-middle-..."When the Liberals win, they attract lower-middle-income voters who might normally be considered Labor voters (e.g. Lindsay, the old Blacktown-centred boundaries of Greenway, and Macarthur which was less Southern Highlands-based than it is now)"<BR/><BR/>See, I acknowledge that Macarthur was less based in the SH in the past (I should know; I live in the SH and Macarthur), but I'm not quite sure that shifts in blue-collar workers are the explanation.<BR/><BR/>There are two towns, Campbelltown and Camden, in close proximity. One is Labor. One is Liberal. The slice of Campbelltown in Macarthur is about equivalent to the slice of Camden. And I suspect that both the median Camden and Campbelltown residents are fairly rusted on in their views. Just as the Western Suburbs shapes Labor's self-image, so places like Camden (in a belt that stretches north from there, up through 'aspirational' suburbs, to arrive in the northwest) shape the Liberals. John Howard WAS Camden.<BR/><BR/>So I suspect, and this is just my personal observation of the area, that Macarthur has a relatively small swing vote, whose influence is increased by the fact that so much of the seat is rusted-on. These voters aren't necessarily lower-middle-class, though much of the seat is; I suspect, given large swings in places like Harrington Park (a new planned community, which stands apart from Camden proper) that they're richer, less socially conservative, and although mortgaged to the hilt not exactly the typical conservative beau idol of former Labor voters turned off by Keating's glitziness.Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06345079564133624529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-35097564065541282132009-01-17T10:35:00.000+11:002009-01-17T10:35:00.000+11:00When Labor wins government, it attracts upper-midd...When Labor wins government, it attracts upper-middle-income voters who might normally be considered Liberal voters (e.g. Bennelong, Longman). When the Liberals win, they attract lower-middle-income voters who might normally be considered Labor voters (e.g. Lindsay, the old Blacktown-centred boundaries of Greenway, and Macarthur which was less Southern Highlands-based than it is now). <BR/><BR/>The seats in northern Tasmania have been bellwether marginals since 1975. I agree that it's Queensland that is starting to make its political muscle felt.<BR/><BR/>It's easy to amaze people with no memory.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-15487933553083827372009-01-16T21:40:00.000+11:002009-01-16T21:40:00.000+11:00Oh, the effing Howard battlers again. Especially t...Oh, the effing Howard battlers again. Especially the Western Sydney Howard battlers.<BR/><BR/>It's quite simple to explain the fallacy: many influential journalists and think-tankers are based in Sydney. They like to think they're the centre of the world. So they ascribe to Sydney seats an entirely undeserved significance.<BR/><BR/>Of the seats that changed hands in 2007, TWO could plausibly be called 'Sydney seats'. One was Bennelong -- an exceptional circumstance driven, if anything, by Howard's Neolithic stances on immigration earlier in his career, which hurt him with the growing non-Anglo population of his electorate.<BR/><BR/>The other is Lindsey -- always ascribed mythic powers by lazy pundits, but atypical. Lindsey lies on the divide between the northwestern suburbs -- full of bible-bashing crucifix-clutching Ned Flanders types -- and the southwestern suburbs -- which are Labor's heartland, and more or less always have been. Sydney's suburbs are not full of hardy tradesmen disillusioned by Keating who threw their lot in with Howard. They are some of the safest seats in the country -- for either Liberal or Labor. Suburban seats, and by extension suburban voters, are generally set in their ways.<BR/><BR/>The seats that DID change hands were overwhelmingly 'provincial' seats -- in Queensland, regional Tasmania and the New South Wales provinces. Flynn, not Lindsey, is the defining seat of the Rudd swing.Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06345079564133624529noreply@blogger.com