tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post2234585816699924782..comments2023-12-06T00:23:28.790+11:00Comments on Press gallery reform: All in good timeAndrew Elderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-26441252516644947282013-09-29T13:32:55.151+10:002013-09-29T13:32:55.151+10:00William Bowe’s Bludger Track – a statistical model...William Bowe’s Bludger Track – a statistical model that used aggregated statewide opinion poll results to predict the outcomes of the House of Representatives elections – did extremely well in the 2013 election campaign. The model predicted the Coalition would win 90 seats and Labor would win 57. The actual results were 90 and 55. The model predicted a two-party preferred outcome of Coalition 53.5% to Labor 46.5%. The actual results were 53.4% to 46.6%. The model predicted primary votes of Coalition 44.3%, Labor 33.9%, Greens 9.4%, Others 12.4% The actual results were 45.5%, 33.4%, 8.6%, 12.4%. William Bowe’s success in Australia and Nate Silver’s success in the United States show that statistically sound analysis of aggregated poll results is a useful tool for predicting election outcomes. Interpreting individual poll results is a waste of time. Seat-specific polls, particularly robo-polls, proved unreliable in this year’s campaign. May the success of Bludger Track encourage pollsters to focus their resources on statewide surveys conducted by live interviewers. May the success of Bludger Track prompt more journalists to consult statisticians when reporting on poll results.Nicholashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17452656387562521590noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-41980291700321934172013-09-01T15:31:34.848+10:002013-09-01T15:31:34.848+10:00Clive Palmer on Faine hung up mid interview.
Ther...Clive Palmer on Faine hung up mid interview.<br /><br />There have been domestic abuse claims with some of his candidates.<br /><br />Not nice at all but i think he has a vendetta against the l.n.p<br /><br />He's refreshing but crazy and will damage the l.n.p brand.<br /><br />The far right in Queensland are a real nut job variety that will be of grave concern on election night.<br /><br />Don't forget Cory Bernardi was Mr Abbotts right hand man.<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-8207642565187078942013-08-29T07:59:05.009+10:002013-08-29T07:59:05.009+10:00Lovely and charming daughters....??
Seems an obn...Lovely and charming daughters....??<br /><br /> Seems an obnoxious pair to me like their father<br /><br />lol!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-47868849229768996342013-08-28T20:52:27.517+10:002013-08-28T20:52:27.517+10:00Silver said that Australian polls don't have e...Silver said that Australian polls don't have enough info, aren't granular enough to do what he does. Sometimes you just have to read what I say and take that on face value rather than make things up. People's opinions just aren't firm, and no amount of statistical noodling will serve to create (as Orwell put it) solidity out of pure wind.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-29213573326815573772013-08-28T12:10:30.176+10:002013-08-28T12:10:30.176+10:00Nate Silver used weighted aggregates of published ...Nate Silver used weighted aggregates of published scientific polls to make extremely accurate statements about the probabilities of electoral outcomes in United States presidential and Senate races in 2008 and 2012. This is the same approach used in the Australian context by William Bowe aka Poll Bludger, Scott Steel aka Pollytics, Kevin Bonham, and Pottinger Election Blog. It's true that the result of one poll is not particularly useful and does not deserve the breathless and innumerate coverage it generally gets in the mainstream media. Perhaps that is what you mean by "rubbish". But aggregates of poll results from several reputable pollsters over a period of months are not rubbish. They can be extremely useful, as Nate Silver's record attests. William Bowe did a good job of interpreting polling data in the 2010 election year. I'm a fan of your work and you make a good case for discarding the current horse race approach to covering politics. I just think you overstate your case when you dismiss statistically rigorous analysis of aggregated poll results as a source of knowledge about electoral probabilities.Nicholashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17452656387562521590noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-27951221969640012202013-08-27T20:20:22.718+10:002013-08-27T20:20:22.718+10:00Much the same as those expressed by Nate Silver: t...Much the same as those expressed by Nate Silver: they're just not useful. I would question that a company that can produce rubbish journalism is even capable of sound polling, let alone the exaltation you would heap upon them.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-92098104002721809732013-08-27T18:12:22.328+10:002013-08-27T18:12:22.328+10:00Andrew, you write with insight when the topic is t...Andrew, you write with insight when the topic is the standard of journalism in this country or the quality of policy development by political parties. But when you dismiss aggregates of scientifically robust polls - aggregates which have a good record in recent state and federal elections - you sound like the conservative who set up unskewedpolls.com during the 2012 US presidential campaign. He didn't trust the poll results that showed the president ahead so he simply "adjusted" the numbers to reflect his preconceived belief that Romney was ahead. What are your concerns about the published polls in Australia? Nicholashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17452656387562521590noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-86423183793074480742013-08-27T04:46:57.000+10:002013-08-27T04:46:57.000+10:00Kelly o Dwyer and Shorten on Q and A tonight...
L...Kelly o Dwyer and Shorten on Q and A tonight...<br /><br />Lively but respectful..<br /><br />Tim Wilson surprised me with that baby comment... lol!!<br /><br /> So sad that the ugly and corrupt Murdoch u.k. press paparazzi stalk Mr Watson from the U.K.<br /><br />Disgusting and sad.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-75659682677972211592013-08-27T02:59:12.779+10:002013-08-27T02:59:12.779+10:00Andrew I agree 'support' for TA is soft bu...Andrew I agree 'support' for TA is soft but unfortunately people will have to tick a box and KR is not that desirable. It will be a case of who people dislike and distrust least. I am very afraid that the-votes-wihich-count are going to go with Abbott. Tony Windsor made brief reference to TA's stability on Australian Story last night. I think he is correct. He appears to be a very immature person and not an honest one. The media could well propel him into the Lodge both by propaganda and careless neglect. I believe some of the most ideological media elements will keep him in power. I am very concerned.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-63847906648935078362013-08-26T21:13:03.239+10:002013-08-26T21:13:03.239+10:00It's not some beauty contest within a politica...It's not some beauty contest within a political party being discussed here, it's an actual federal election.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-67567203613239876682013-08-26T19:51:14.511+10:002013-08-26T19:51:14.511+10:00Anon I agree
Julie Bishops jokes were like a nast...Anon I agree<br /><br />Julie Bishops jokes were like a nasty mean girl at a private- school..<br /><br />No wit with wisdom at all.<br /><br />Abbott's daughters were lovely but they're not like The Obama girls who are absolutely adorable and have a pretty cool Dad that's liked globally, unlike their daggy Dad Tony.<br /><br />It was such an American thing to watch with so much schmaltz attached to it..<br /><br />Not very Australian!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-17260608772348490672013-08-25T20:33:19.039+10:002013-08-25T20:33:19.039+10:00And they're all at least 3% out, and they'...And they're all at least 3% out, and they're bullshit, and I stand by the claim that any support for Abbott is soft.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-71293377926748486792013-08-25T20:19:48.213+10:002013-08-25T20:19:48.213+10:00The Abbott girls put Julie Bishop to shame at the ...The Abbott girls put Julie Bishop to shame at the Coalition launch today. They were charming and polished. Julie Bishop was a tough old harridan who told a crude joke. I didn't hang about for Abbott. All that Hope. I was overwhelmed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-39031398485573003992013-08-25T10:56:38.875+10:002013-08-25T10:56:38.875+10:00I wish the Coalition were merely level-pegging wit...I wish the Coalition were merely level-pegging with Labor as you claim, but sadly that isn't the case. Weighted aggregates of published scientific polls put the Coalition at 52 or 53 percent of the two-party preferred vote right now. I'm referring to William Bowe aka Poll Bludger, Pottinger Election Blog, and Kevin Bonham.Nicholashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17452656387562521590noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-71711267637027506402013-08-25T10:00:25.490+10:002013-08-25T10:00:25.490+10:00But, Gillard was mean to him!!But, Gillard was mean to him!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-28334596931680511152013-08-24T17:18:55.253+10:002013-08-24T17:18:55.253+10:00Once upon a time in Australia a man wearing full m...Once upon a time in Australia a man wearing full make-up would never be considered PM material and yet TA looks like taking his tanning creams and eye highlighting powders and nut brown hair dyes all the way to the Lodge. God! I hope you are right VoterB Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-47867863199413870402013-08-24T16:07:54.123+10:002013-08-24T16:07:54.123+10:00The government has been found to be cruel, inhuman...The government has been found to be cruel, inhuman and degrading and behaving illegally jailing refugees.<br /><br />Trading and trafficking human beings for votes is disgusting and depraved, why do you think it is OK? Because we are white and can do whatever we like?<br /><br />http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2013/Aug-21/228058-lebanese-miss-the-boat-on-australia-migrant-law.ashx#axzz2crYU5L7bAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-68501102927290622392013-08-24T00:43:30.324+10:002013-08-24T00:43:30.324+10:00He's winking because he knows that the media a...He's winking because he knows that the media are, in effect, campaigning for him. I've never seen anything like it, here or anywhere else I've lived. Although we hardly read even the Sydney Morning Herald any more, I have checked in several times this week online. Not only is every domestic political story slanted against Labor, but it's accompanied in every instance by advertisements for the Liberal Party. My nan used to say, "You wouldn't read about it!" Except that you would, and do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-8173689707408498102013-08-23T23:14:23.680+10:002013-08-23T23:14:23.680+10:00How the Opposition Leader expects to win over the ...How the Opposition Leader expects to win over the uncommitted voter with his current strategies (and it's him, not Credlin, calling the shots) is anyone's guess. The latest asylum seeker policy is aimed at distracting the media from asking questions about the Coalition's economic policy (even some in the media noted that), but amending the Coalition's original policy to include additional measures suggests the original policy would not have worked on its own, as they claimed. Worse still, the Opposition plan is to have Australia pay hundreds of thousands of dollars of “your money” for rickety old boats, in other words, junk. The only result of that will be that the fishermen will buy more boats with the money! <br /><br />I agree with you, Andrew; Tony Abbott will never be Prime Minister.VoterBentleighnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-25246672433235480022013-08-23T21:45:10.113+10:002013-08-23T21:45:10.113+10:00Dear Brainy People,
What actually is Clive Palmer...Dear Brainy People,<br /><br />What actually is Clive Palmer trying to achieve by standing in this election ?<br /><br />His bad blood with Abbott seems real. Is Palmer trying to split the Conservative vote and award his share via preferences to the ALP just to give Abbott the heebee-jeebies ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-51464596925512609692013-08-23T20:13:35.377+10:002013-08-23T20:13:35.377+10:00Please Andrew, credit where credit is due. Today w...Please Andrew, credit where credit is due. Today we have been the fortunate recipients of a brand spanking new slogan.<br /><br />Buy the Boats.<br /><br />Right, that'll do it, problem fixed, voters stupid.<br /><br />I have been with you all the way Andrew, but by Christ I am getting nervous as I come to understand how bloody stupid some of the electorate is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-91434821219166089102013-08-23T11:28:51.680+10:002013-08-23T11:28:51.680+10:00Thanks Andrew.
I don't mind Tony Abbott winki...Thanks Andrew.<br /><br />I don't mind Tony Abbott winking to his supporters, it's the constant winking to the Press gallery hacks after they 'interview' him that sickens me.<br /><br />You're right about the polls. They're very soft. The result hinges on News Ltd v reason and logic.<br /><br />Unfortunately, nobody has ever lost underestimating the intelligence of a large portion of the Australian electorate.Swing Requirednoreply@blogger.com