tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post2887683261780210132..comments2023-12-06T00:23:28.790+11:00Comments on Press gallery reform: Why the Queensland election mattersAndrew Elderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-6803406397936775882012-01-28T20:54:49.681+11:002012-01-28T20:54:49.681+11:00Sure will :\Sure will :\Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-13462942218222059092012-01-28T20:53:33.528+11:002012-01-28T20:53:33.528+11:00I agree with you about the Senate but I meant that...I agree with you about the Senate but I meant that Tassie results can't really be extrapolated to the rest of the country.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-89072210739652165562012-01-28T20:51:45.290+11:002012-01-28T20:51:45.290+11:00HS, doesn't explain why Bob Hawke beat Fraser,...HS, doesn't explain why Bob Hawke beat Fraser, or why Howard saw off four Labor leaders who were taller than him. Suspect Kaiser has his match in McGrath but we'll see.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-56659053853235512012012-01-28T20:49:46.090+11:002012-01-28T20:49:46.090+11:00Gah! The one thing you don't check pops up to ...Gah! The one thing you don't check pops up to bite you. Thanks, fixed.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-44805321028826265512012-01-28T17:23:24.847+11:002012-01-28T17:23:24.847+11:00Love your work. But Robert Schwarten was never Ma...Love your work. But Robert Schwarten was never Mayor of Bundaberg. Lived his life in Rockhampton and was never a Mayor of anything.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-72190735539234931472012-01-28T01:28:17.697+11:002012-01-28T01:28:17.697+11:00Good analysis thanks.
I had tritely said to someo...Good analysis thanks.<br /><br />I had tritely said to someone that what goes on in Queensland should stay in Queensland and some of what you have written confirms that and yet other parts have me rethinking that maybe more notice should be taken.<br /><br />I have to question though your characterisation of the Tasmanian voting system as <i>wacky</i><br /><br />I can only surmise that you are referring to the lower house system of Modified Hare-Clark with Robson Rotation.<br /><br />The system that is used to elect senators in this country is probably more wacky than that used in the Tasmanian Lower House probably because of the bastardised similarities and the utterly crazy above the line voting option.<br /><br />The states that use Optional Preferential Voting for single member electorates could be equally described as wacky or at the very least a political fix for a problem that was in reality of no great consequence and has probably caused more problems than it solved.<br /><br />At least we no longer have the utterly crazy Modified d'Hondt system in use anymore.<br /><br />Footnote: why is my verification word this time waxest? and does it mean most wacky?D Mick Weirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16252058098977395761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-39741198529711252842012-01-27T23:08:46.474+11:002012-01-27T23:08:46.474+11:00Don't forget the old political truism: Short m...Don't forget the old political truism: Short men don't have the necessary gravitas to win elections and carry their parties to victory.<br /> Sarkozy realised that there will only ever be one Napoleon and so he got the elevator shoes on to get his win.<br /> Campbell Newman is a runt. No one ever picks the runt of the litter. They usually only get the sympathy vote. Is that enough to win? I think not.<br /> Also, he is a Mexican. From Victoria even! If I know my Queenslanders, there will be more than an ounce of suspicion of his Queensland bona fides when it comes to committing a vote to him.<br /> Finally, it has yet to resurface, but his time as Brisbane Lord Mayor was a case of LEAVING with his tail between his legs, due to the massive Rates increases he imposed on the local denizens in order to fund his Engineering wet dreams.<br /> As for Labor,I bet Mike Kaiser is still around and about. He orchestrated Anna Bligh's come-from-behind win last time, and though much-despised by all and sundry, his political nous IS respected.HillbillySkeletonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06056151016359730712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-16323818202797698702012-01-27T21:58:40.129+11:002012-01-27T21:58:40.129+11:00As a Gold Coaster in a very safe Lib seat, I am no...As a Gold Coaster in a very safe Lib seat, I am not getting any anecdotal evidence, one way or the other. People are largely indifferent with most in my orbit doing the "they're all the same" shrug.<br /><br />I know the polls are saying LNP but I think a few here are not too sure about the Campbell element.<br /><br />It will be interesting to watch it pan out.Space Kidettenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-10082491613363225032012-01-27T21:26:48.445+11:002012-01-27T21:26:48.445+11:00It isn't, and the LNP will be wearied from hav...It isn't, and the LNP will be wearied from having fought her.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-84176173740037554362012-01-27T21:25:26.124+11:002012-01-27T21:25:26.124+11:00They can't do discipline, not over such a long...They can't do discipline, not over such a long period, in a state where the Feds are largely an irrelevance and the infrastructure spend comes out of Brisbane not Canberra. <br /><br />Yes, a clownish LNP govt would be best for Gillard but I'm not convinced Bligh will give it away without a fight.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-75637031737163082732012-01-27T21:22:13.477+11:002012-01-27T21:22:13.477+11:00I put my name to mine :p Can't differ too much...I put my name to mine :p Can't differ too much with yr efforts though.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-10681943948400800012012-01-27T21:21:01.076+11:002012-01-27T21:21:01.076+11:00So do you want the full thumping or the mindfuck t...So do you want the full thumping or the mindfuck that comes with a split decision?Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-24105759730851093482012-01-27T19:36:36.544+11:002012-01-27T19:36:36.544+11:00Love your work Andrew, but if I were federal Labor...Love your work Andrew, but if I were federal Labor I'd hoping like hell the LNP win.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-76801069391362068502012-01-27T14:50:31.131+11:002012-01-27T14:50:31.131+11:00Can I play predictions, too? Thanks.
LNP to gain ...Can I play predictions, too? Thanks.<br /><br />LNP to gain power in Qld, but: minority government; and Newman won't get Ashgrove.<br /><br />LNP minority government to blunder and bumble their way through, thus negating any criticism of blundering and bumbling Federal Labor minority government.<br /><br />Bligh to beat Stinky. Hands down! I'm calling that seat now!<br /><br />Federal Labor to win the next election with a seven seat majority.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-34065184766774352302012-01-27T13:03:31.883+11:002012-01-27T13:03:31.883+11:00This is the sort of article that keeps me coming b...This is the sort of article that keeps me coming back to this site. Informed, well written, and not based on a quick poll and a press release.<br /><br />However..<br /><br />I'm not sure that the Qld election can be used as an indicator for the Federal election. For a start, there's still a long time between this Poll and the Federal poll. Also, the Bligh government has the disadvantage of being in government for a long period with a number of failures it can't blame on anyone else. It seems to me that if the NLP can avoid shooting themselves in the foot too badly, and basically run on the platform of not being the Bligh government, they have this election all locked up. Of course this does assume that the NLP will show some uncharacteristic discipline and leave the usual infighting on hold till after the election. Stranger things have happened, and the lure of being in power is a powerful incentive to keep your mouth shut for a few weeks. As for Newman, I think it's going to be difficult to both campaign for Ashgrove and travel round the state to be seen with other candidates as leader. The polling numbers suggest he can do it, but they don't take into account just how many balls he's going to be juggling to pull it off. Still, the NLP doesn't need him to win the seat to get government, just to look like he can win it. If they win the election, having to choose a leader is small potatoes.<br /><br />Personally I think a NLP win would be the best thing that could happen for federal Labor. Mr Abbot would strut around like a rooster making a fool of himself assuring everyone this meant his term as prime minister was assured, while the Prime Minister would be able to brush it off as “an election fought on state issues”. The aftermath would be a sloppier opposition and a government that could no longer be held accountable by proxy for anything that goes wrong in Queensland. Also, it would give a good chance that by 2013 there would be enough discontent with the NLP to send a protest vote to Labor federally. It's no coincidence that the Howard government was a time when Labor pretty much had state government locked up. It meant that any state opposition to government policy was a failure of the States, and by proxy a failure of federal Labor. Any acceptance of government policy was proof that the State Governments were smarter than their federal counterparts, and any scandal/failure of the States was a sign of how badly things would look if Labor was in power federally (and also allowed musings on whether we really needed those incompetent wasteful State governments at all).Davemnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-356333425142342262012-01-27T00:32:22.492+11:002012-01-27T00:32:22.492+11:00A pretty sharp analysis I'd say from the stand...A pretty sharp analysis I'd say from the standpoint of a voter in Bligh's seat. The LNP retain a structural contradiction in that they are dominated by the National Party both in members and in machine. But they need a Liberal veneer in order to win the urban seats where voters are loath to let the hillbillies run things. The past six months have already seen a fair bit of knuckleheaded LNP internal silliness (eg Peter Slipper) and there's no doubt a fair bit more under the lid.<br />Bligh is a good campaigner. She nailed the last election from behind. Newman is renowned for his hot temper and inability to manage dissent and the continuing disjuncture between the Nats and Libs puts their campaign management at risk of big stumbles especially where aspirant leaders like Springborg and Seeney will chafe under Newman's leadership. Labor have Newman largely tied to campaigning in Ashgrove which he needs to win. He doesn't deal well with adverse conditions.<br />There's also the odd nature of the campaign duration. Bligh has said there is evidence from the reconvened Flood Inquiry that needs to heard before the poll, which must only be good for her. So far there's no indication what that might be. <br />I think if Labor runs a strong marginal seats campaign like Rann did in SA last year they've still got a chance at retaining government. But even with a good campaign a scenario as you've described is probably most likely. In that case a Borbidge style LNP period is quite possible. Many of the public servants that I've spoken to expect a period of absolute chaos due to the incoming Premier's personality traits and the knuckleheaded capacities of the likely ministers who are likely to be 'wide around the arse, and thin between the ears', with no experience of governing. <br />The polls are still bad for Labor 41-59 on latest Galaxy but they will tighten over the campaign. Nine points is a lot to make up, but there's still eight weeks to go. Almost alone among my peers I still think it's not yet all over for Bligh.Alphabajangodeltanoreply@blogger.com