tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post116338944533575246..comments2023-12-06T00:23:28.790+11:00Comments on Press gallery reform: Andrew Elderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-1168497125282888522007-01-11T17:32:00.000+11:002007-01-11T17:32:00.000+11:00I'd argue that the DLP is both a conservative and ...I'd argue that the DLP is both a conservative and a labour party.<BR/><BR/>Happy to joust with you on the high plains of theory, but in practice a political party that starts losing heartland seats loses the basic competence necessary for voters to entrust it with power. It is a fallacy akin to the school student who does not pay attention to lessons or texts but assumes that he/she will blitz the exam. <BR/><BR/>The loss of Cunningham showed the nation that Labor was not ready for government, and indeed it has not won since.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-1167179075798335492006-12-27T11:24:00.000+11:002006-12-27T11:24:00.000+11:00The DLP has traditionally been seen as a fringe co...The DLP has traditionally been seen as a fringe conservative party, not a fringe labor party. <BR/><BR/>Obviously, no party wants to lose both marginals and heartland seats... but sometimes difficult choices have to be made. Losing a heartland seat generally means you've lost it to somebody who is guaranteed to support you, so it makes political sense to fight for the middle. <BR/><BR/>I think Howard would be able to manage relying on HoR independents. There is no question that Windsor & Katter would support the conservatives.<BR/><BR/>Likewise, when the ALP lost Cunningham to the greens it made no real difference.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-1166568103538454752006-12-20T09:41:00.000+11:002006-12-20T09:41:00.000+11:00If the ALP loses power to the Coalition, it will n...If the ALP loses power to the Coalition, it will not be able to offer the enticements to their fringe that would otherwise keep them within the fold. Labor's fringe consists not only of the Greens, but in Victoria at least the DLP.<BR/><BR/>It is a sign of political weakness and incompetence to lose both marginals and heartland seats. I've given examples of how the Coalition at state level are so incompetent that they not only lose seats to Labor but to independents as well. An opposition can only win government if they not only court the swingers, but can convince their fringe that they have the ability to deliver for their fringe to a greater extent than is possible for that fringe to battle on alone. <BR/><BR/>The experience of Tasmania's Field government in the 1990s showed Labor always going cap-in-hand to the Greens. While Labor held office during that time, the perception of that government was so poor they achieved little and lost office at the following election. I'd speculate the same would happen if Howard were forced into minority government after the next election and had to negotiate with Tony Windsor, Bob Katter and Peter Andren (all of whom hold seats where, without these individuals, the Coalition would beat Labor). <BR/><BR/>POGs will always seek to avoid frustration and failure to this extent, which is why they face the difficult task of appealling to both their fringe and to swinging voters.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-1166505913187490602006-12-19T16:25:00.000+11:002006-12-19T16:25:00.000+11:00A winning POG has to appeal to the centre without ...<I>A winning POG has to appeal to the centre without losing the fringe</I><BR/><BR/>Not with compulsory voting.<BR/><BR/>With voluntary voting you have to appeal to your own heartland. Under compulsory voting you are guaranteed the support of the fringe of your type (right or left). <BR/><BR/>The possibility of the Greens getting elected is no problem to the ALP because they will always support the ALP in government. The ALP will not lose government if it loses seats to the Greens... they will only lose govt if they lose seats to right-wingers.24601https://www.blogger.com/profile/16465977166547394462noreply@blogger.com