tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post2914635433335917311..comments2023-12-06T00:23:28.790+11:00Comments on Press gallery reform: Blank chequesAndrew Elderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-43185964196758756672011-09-20T21:40:10.021+10:002011-09-20T21:40:10.021+10:00Doug, Hawke and Keating didn't just slot into ...Doug, Hawke and Keating didn't just slot into place in 1976 with a ready-made solution. Keating was still in thrall to Rex Connor and Catholic teaching about women in the home until the early '80s. There was much wandering about aimlessly and they were smashed much harder than they have been now.<br /><br />The Coalition isn't offering a viable alternative and I'm certain that will become obvious before the election. Gillard Labor doesn't have to beat its better nature (however real or imaginary that may be), just the opponents in front of them.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-29165797212763169992011-09-20T14:47:20.246+10:002011-09-20T14:47:20.246+10:00I'm not sure what you mean by that. After 1975...I'm not sure what you mean by that. After 1975 Hawke and Keating found a market friendly path back (it still took 8 years I think) but I don't see a Hawke or Keating on the horizon. It is ironic that by doing this they set the forces in motion (the rise of the right wing of the party - with its mantra of 'whatever it takes') that led to the current crisis. Not only don't I see any Hawkes or Keatings I don't see an agenda (that the ALP is likely to endorse) which might form a path back from the (likely) coming disaster. <br /><br />I do see plenty for a progressive government to do but for such a government to emerge requires that Labor first resolve its inner tensions either by splitting or (perhaps) in its desperation, turning on the right wing – whose idiotic meddling has brought the party to this pass – and then subduing the massive sense of entitlement that sets it at odds with the Greens. I don't think any of the foregoing is likely but who knows? The recent Danish election provides a pointer to a possible path back to left-ish government in this country but is the ALP ready for a coalition of the left? I can't see it. <br /><br />Whether the Liberal Party is strong or weak has no bearing on the crisis faced by Labor. After the DLP split we had (I think) about 25 years of stultifying mediocre government from the right before Whitlam. The Liberal Party was not as far as I know fundamentally different then but it still took a quarter of a century for the pendulum to swing again so I don't really see what you are getting at with the comment that the Liberals are not strong enough to carry Australian politics by themselves. It may well not be about that but whether the electorate perceives a viable alternative government. If the next election goes as badly for Labor as I fear it may well do we are conceivably faced with a decade or more of Federal coalition government. Won't that be dandy!Doug Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00101072468101492041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-53124975670394218952011-09-19T19:31:02.680+10:002011-09-19T19:31:02.680+10:00Yeah, that's what they said after 1975, Doug! ...Yeah, that's what they said after 1975, Doug! The Liberal Party isn't strong enough to carry mainstream Australian politics by itself.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-32782993449021077302011-09-18T23:22:36.103+10:002011-09-18T23:22:36.103+10:00Hmm
For the Opposition's thought bubbles to be...Hmm<br />For the Opposition's thought bubbles to be scrutinized as they richly deserve requires that the government stop burying itself with humiliation upon disaster upon outright stupidity. Anyone think this is likely to occur before the next election? Abbott and his band of orcs have nothing to fear from the media while the government is so comprehensively destroying itself. The unbelievable and ongoing series of own goals over asylum seekers is just the latest in a continuous series of gifts that just keep on giving for the Opposition. All Abbott needs to do is stand on the sidelines pointing - 'look. over there! See what they've done this time'!<br /><br />Misha Schubert accurately summed up the situation with her piece on 'Teflon Tony'. Labor hasn't a clue how to deal with him. Yr average punter doesn't like Abbott and probably most folks need no convincing that Abbott's policies are rubbish or non existant - a small number might feel some sympathy for Gillard facing Attila the Hun over the depatch boxes, a few might be revolted by his excesses but most of those whose votes will decide the coming election are so fed up with this government that come Hell or High Water they will punish them severely in 2013. I personally think this will happen irrespective of whether or not Rudd is prevailed upon to return to try and save the family jewels from the coming conflagration. <br /><br />I am no friend of the Coalition but surely I'm not alone with the sneaking feeling that this might just be the least competent Federal government I've ever seen. After four years in power Labor is still completely unable to communicate any vision for the nation, any semblance of a coherent agenda. Gillard's speech rallying the troops to her idea of party reform and renewal poignantly underlines the impossibility of either and the lid now seems to be coming off the hidden cronyism, corruption and mismanagement within the Union movement. Try as it undoubtedly will to distance itself from this mess the Parliamentary ALP will inevitably be singed with blowback from this.<br /><br />I'm afraid we are witnessing the destruction simultaneously from without and within of a once great and important political party. It took the ALP a very long time to come back from the split with the DLP and I fear the current crisis is at least as great. I personally don't see a path back and would not be surprised if the ALP split into Social Democrats and Liberal Democrats. This is a tragedy for the country but pretending that Federal Labor remains viable, that it is likely to compete effectively in 2013 or that the Gillard government's plight is somehow the product of inept and/or lazy journalism serves no purpose.Doug Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00101072468101492041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-22196818098816080022011-09-15T21:47:00.625+10:002011-09-15T21:47:00.625+10:00Senexx, Abbott is out of ideas. Always has been.
...Senexx, Abbott is out of ideas. Always has been.<br /><br />David, laziness and stupidity got editors where they are and they are convinced that they have to try everything but depth and breadth first.<br /><br />Lachlan, a few weeks ago I might have disagreed re Rudd, not sure now. As for state politics, I think Qld will be fascinating and the proof of your theory will come in SA, where the Labor govt is in decline but stays in office until 2014.<br /><br />Alphaba: yep, me too. The hubris train has left the station and there's no calling it back. Toot toot!<br /><br />Funksoul: not long now. Thinks are so toxic at Question Time you're going to see a dust-up sooner rather than later.<br /><br />GG: that's why polling is bullshit. A real election campaign will force people to make serious choices.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-20837732277763711682011-09-15T20:13:37.320+10:002011-09-15T20:13:37.320+10:00Abbott may take the opportunity to demote Bernardi...Abbott may take the opportunity to demote Bernardi when there is a shadow Cabinet reshuffle to accommodate the ineffable Sinodinis. Doing it as a gesture may only make him a martyr.<br /><br />The polling with Rudd as a surrogate just tells us that people aren't that unhappy about Labor's policies atm. So all the blather about "liar liar pants on fire' is not the likely road to the Lodge for Abbott. In fact, I'd be surprised if he lasted beyond one poll with a TPP for Labor with a 5 in front.Greensborough Growlernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-19373556427289996062011-09-15T12:43:38.587+10:002011-09-15T12:43:38.587+10:00Personally I'm just waiting with baited breath...Personally I'm just waiting with baited breath till abbott has his next "brain fart/urge to punch/parkinsons" episode being interviewed again.Funksoul123https://www.blogger.com/profile/14512374627441568219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-78765931223103469322011-09-15T00:05:43.683+10:002011-09-15T00:05:43.683+10:00The Coalition remind me of the Kennett Libs in Vic...The Coalition remind me of the Kennett Libs in Victoria who lost the 1999 election on a margin call by independents and spent the next seven or so years believing the electorate had made a mistake. Bracks in contrast followed a soft-centrist post-Kennett reformishy program and was rewarded with a landslide in 2002. While that's currently looking remote, but not impossible, for Gillard, she's at least setting herself up for what could be a fairly competitive 'listens then acts' campaign. To this might be added some reform proposals coming out of the current set of reviews (media, tax etc) but with actual actions, in contrast to Rudd's furious inaction (2020 summit, Henry).Alphabajangodeltanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-41193766685847912362011-09-14T18:46:08.835+10:002011-09-14T18:46:08.835+10:00Good piece again (what can I say, I'm a fan).
...Good piece again (what can I say, I'm a fan).<br /><br />Two points; a blush of Godwin's Law in the otherwise excellent assessment of that strange fellow from Adelaide (No, not that one, I mean Bernardi); and I pose this question - what role will incumbent state Liberal governments play in the next Federal Election? <br /><br />Australians aren't noted for being overly politically literate, but one received wisdom was that Australian voters, generally, liked to play their state and federal governments off against each other; that Howard was supported by people who voted Labor at a state level in NSW.<br /><br />Could the appearance of two Liberal administrations in the two most populous states - and an opportunity for a third in Queensland before the next Federal poll - sap a bit of thunder from The Situation's long march to the Lodge?<br /><br />This could be exacerbated if the O'Farrell government maintains a slash and burn approach to public services whilst spluttering infrastructure development dogs his administration (the Northwest rail line won't be open by 2013).<br /><br />A third factor could be if the ALP (not noted for it's intestinal fortitude at the best of times) loses its nerve and dumps Gillard for Rudd. If that happens then, after a brief honeymoon we will remember why we got rid of him in the first place (the man is borderline sociopathic). That, and the ALP will look like the party of opinion polls which, despite the received wisdom of the MSM, are not respected in this country, as it leaves an impression like the nerdy kid trying too hard to fit in with the cool kids. Or like Peter Costello guffawing with "the punters". Fingernail down the blackboard stuff and totally socially and politically toxic.<br /><br />But, enough to say that the ALP is right in this contest.Lachlan Ridgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-26300778999861857752011-09-14T17:23:03.105+10:002011-09-14T17:23:03.105+10:00Tick Tick Tick. Tony Abbott still hasn't sacke...Tick Tick Tick. Tony Abbott still hasn't sacked Cory Bernardi, gutless wonder that he is. I wonder how the head of Howard's Muslim Advisory Council, who threatened to walk away with a sizeable number of marginal seat votes at the next election, if he didn't, feels? <br /> All of which is entirely of a piece with an understanding of how Abbott would lead the country. That is, he would be incapable of leading. Pandering to the lowest common denominator, yes; leading, nuh.<br /> You know, I often wonder whether he even wrote Battlines, or just free-formed some half-baked thoughts to Tony O'Leary and let him write it in exchange for a pat on the head and continued employ by the Liberal Party, while 'The Situation' went out and desported himself to the electorate in order to win over the wavering female vote, undermine Malcolm Turnbull and conspire with Nick Minchin and the likes of Bernardi, to replace him.<br /> Still, the increasingly sleazy behaviour of the Coalition wrt the Gillard government will likely leave them in no good odour with the electorate in a couple of years. I think the electorate will only sit back bemusedly as he cavorts around the nation pointlessly for so long as an election is not imminent. Then just watch him crumble once the spotlight is turned on him and the scrutiny we all crave is finally applied rigorously, as with a Media Inquiry hanging like a Sword of Damocles above them now, not even the Murdoch men and women will let him get away with blue murder for forever and a day.Hillbilly Skeletonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-84945097761765919882011-09-14T16:10:42.383+10:002011-09-14T16:10:42.383+10:00What brilliant analysis Andrew. There has to be a ...What brilliant analysis Andrew. There has to be a reason why we are not getting this sort of in depth reporting from our print journos. It can't just be laziness and stupidity surely?<br /><br />DavidAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-16593152792553689982011-09-14T15:45:59.685+10:002011-09-14T15:45:59.685+10:00I don't know, he was out of ideas, so if you c...I don't know, he was out of ideas, so if you call that grasping at straws OK.<br /><br />He was still given a free run in the media, particularly talkback radio (Lawsy maybe), not a critical statement was madeSenexxhttp://senexx.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-22431597132882288102011-09-14T12:57:23.893+10:002011-09-14T12:57:23.893+10:00It won't be up to them. Remember Howard graspi...It won't be up to them. Remember Howard grasping at straws in '07? It'll be like that.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-3268580094232944842011-09-14T10:48:42.005+10:002011-09-14T10:48:42.005+10:00"Asylum-seekers will not be an issue at the n..."Asylum-seekers will not be an issue at the next election: only the fringe-dwellers will dare go near that issue."<br /><br />I REALLY hope you are correct on this, but i wouldn't expect the Coalition to give up their best dog-whistle and source of FUD that easily.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-31204489989053824372011-09-14T10:07:44.335+10:002011-09-14T10:07:44.335+10:00I think that you overestimate the polls and undere...I think that you overestimate the polls and underestimate how coverage is changing. Abbott is not getting the free run he got 6 months ago.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-10838617849387439812011-09-14T08:13:47.691+10:002011-09-14T08:13:47.691+10:00Your logic is infallable, as usual. The only smal...Your logic is infallable, as usual. The only small detail that continues to frustrate your analysis of the Liberals' unelectability is their continuing and growing success in the polls.<br /><br />Sadly, logic matters not for the Situation, nor for the electorate that is happy enough with 'JuLIAR' and whatever other bullshit is shovelled its way. It doesn't have to make sense if it aligns with what you already think.<br /><br />I'd love to think you're right, and the Situation's house of cards will soon come tumbling down. I just don't see it happening.<br /><br />Kymbos.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com