tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post5179870925667646833..comments2023-12-06T00:23:28.790+11:00Comments on Press gallery reform: After the race is runAndrew Elderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-33298155446835547962014-11-15T12:11:57.822+11:002014-11-15T12:11:57.822+11:00Anonymous re the statistics.
95% confidence leve...Anonymous re the statistics. <br />95% confidence level with a margin of error of +/-3% basically means 'I am 95% sure the sample exactly reflects the whole population and if it does I'm sure that the actual result lies somewhere in this 6% range'.<br /><br />Newspoll results use +/- x% margins. Polls can use x% as the whole range of the error but I think local polling organizations use the +/-/x% system so you best check each I guess.<br /><br />But yes the margin of error does work both ways. 37% +/- 3% means the actual result will be somewhere between 34% and 40%. I don't think there is any inference that it is more likely to be 37%. A larger sample may give you a different headline like 37.5% or even 35% and will narrow the range but the actual result should still be somewhere in the 37% +/- 3% range.<br /><br />A jump between polls from 37% to 40% +/-/3% indicates a move but the actual result could still be 37%. <br /><br />However you view it though a 49%/51% +/- 3% result is unusable as far as I can see,Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-91164747808996767552014-11-13T18:24:33.023+11:002014-11-13T18:24:33.023+11:00Further to comments above about the media's la...Further to comments above about the media's lauding ofJulie Bishop ...<br /><br />It appears she had no clue that the US and China had been negotiating about action on climate change. That is a deal between Australia's major ally and our biggest trading partner.<br /><br />Furthermore recent commentary about Obama's liking for Abbott and vice versa can only be interpreted as extremely superficial now that it is glaringly obvious that our government has been kept in the dark about the climate change agreement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-84781627358785850352014-11-12T14:50:48.094+11:002014-11-12T14:50:48.094+11:00"His activism, firmness and clarity have mark..."His activism, firmness and clarity have marked him as something better than the brawling thug that many voters had him pegged as."<br /><br />I felt sick reading that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-77080790142354624782014-11-12T11:22:11.498+11:002014-11-12T11:22:11.498+11:00Great post BB.
Fairfax is too passive to shake o...Great post BB.<br /><br />Fairfax is too passive to shake off its innate conservatism and toadying to powerful interests. In the current environment that makes it bland and inneffectual, totally illequiped to confront and interogate this bumbling, malicious govt. When you've got a abject bunny like Mark Kenny as your chief political correspondant, you know things are rotten.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-55600629138886674162014-11-12T11:10:15.181+11:002014-11-12T11:10:15.181+11:00If you value your sanity I wouldn't recommend ...If you value your sanity I wouldn't recommend Mark The Clown Kenny's latest piece of shameless bootlicking in the Age today. <br /><br />Apparently, Abbott came through with his promise to shirtfront Putin, in a - excuse me while I gag - 'high octane' meeting, no less. A high octane meeting that lasted 15 minutes. <br /><br />Give me strength.<br /><br />I also note that Shorten's popularity 'surged' in the latest polls. I noted that 'dramatic recovery' by looking at the polls, not by reading the Australian media which, for some reason, has ignored these polls.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-16058499037713620202014-11-12T05:31:04.871+11:002014-11-12T05:31:04.871+11:00Andrew I hope you continue your tales from the tra...Andrew I hope you continue your tales from the track and offer us your tips about the Filly, Miss Julie and dark horse Shorten. Is the filly a sprinter over the short distance or will she have staying power? Does the dark horse have what it takes or will he pull up well short? Will both be nobbled?<br /><br />For what it is worth, this is what I think.<br /><br />Bishop is a media creation. She appears to be a competent woman with charm enough for diplomatic circles but is she the superstar the media would have us believe? The Harper's pic seems to be based on the sleekly natural photos taken of Princess Diana just before she died. The lens trained on a sporty beauty with a new cropped hair do free of hairspray and the Palace. Harper's Bishop was a near clone: it said here is a modern woman ready to take on the world.<br /><br />Is she that good? The media has put her up as the next PM but I cannot see what she has done to warrant that attention apart from being competent, hard-working, articulate and fit.<br /><br />I have been frustrated by Bill Shorten who has not been in the race. Now I am beginning to wonder if he is beavering away behind the scenes on a sale able agenda for the ALP. He must be doing something. Surely.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-971018694085223762014-11-11T22:02:26.980+11:002014-11-11T22:02:26.980+11:00not wrong about Matthewson, she's very touchy!...not wrong about Matthewson, she's very touchy! Last Twitter exchange I had with her she got extremely defensive (I was being polite) when criticised on factual errorsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-57620981717390987992014-11-11T17:04:41.853+11:002014-11-11T17:04:41.853+11:00Insightful as always. Sometimes I wonder if our MS...Insightful as always. Sometimes I wonder if our MSM political analysis was ever any better or it's just new media has exposed the hollowness of these old media hacks smug posturing. I rarely read any analysis from our elite political journalists now without thinking I could probably do better getting some insights from my local milk bar proprietor. I vaguely remember the days when I believed their insights did have some authority and meaning, but maybe this is just nostalgia for a past that never really existed. Tony Abbott is prime minister because the media gave him a free pass to the lodge and that's something I'll never forgive or forget. I don't like Bill Shorten he's beige and boring but I'll happily vote for him because he is not a regressive, anti-intellectual nut case. The Labor strategists must be really hoping Tony will be able to hang on to the next election because he's a one termer for sure but will he be able to survive his own political incompetence and bloody minded stupidity?Elizabethhttp://www.thebackyardlemontree.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-81199987993162971862014-11-11T14:21:54.502+11:002014-11-11T14:21:54.502+11:00Neigh!!!
Brilliant, as alwaysNeigh!!!<br /><br />Brilliant, as alwaysAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07751752866267313598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-1135292802503384642014-11-11T06:08:38.714+11:002014-11-11T06:08:38.714+11:00I'm no statistician, but doesn't the quant...I'm no statistician, but doesn't the quantum of 'margin of error' apply to either side of the result? In other words, a result of 37% approval with a argon of error is expected to lie somewhere between 35.5 and 38.5. So a jump from 37% to 40% with a margin of error of 3% can be seen as a change?<br />Can anyone more enlightened than me help with this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-60241086476732134852014-11-10T22:26:42.755+11:002014-11-10T22:26:42.755+11:00I see that Matthewson has ticked the bullshit box,...I see that Matthewson has ticked the bullshit box, yet again.rhwombatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-62643482122860975352014-11-10T19:01:56.647+11:002014-11-10T19:01:56.647+11:00I've only just realized this after 40 years: t...I've only just realized this after 40 years: the electorate is smarter than many - including me, and this author at times - assume.<br /><br />They make their minds up pretty early and vote accordingly. And, despite the bullshit and the jargon, they do know what is going on. <br /><br />For example, the Victorian state election is over already. No gaffes, no media, no incisive embittered commentary will change that. <br /><br />(and my Muslim kids did just fine on the VCE English exam, for those who didn't believe me)<br /><br />Joe Fitzpatrick.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-43290499362479877572014-11-10T18:59:27.632+11:002014-11-10T18:59:27.632+11:00You have made me laugh and cry again Andrew.
I l...You have made me laugh and cry again Andrew. <br /><br />I lied about the crying bit. I have been benumbed by political 'commentary'. <br /><br />And, of course, this afternoon has brought the news that Abbott will not be taking off his blue tie and rolling up his shirt sleeves in Putin's presence.<br /><br />Who would have thought that?<br /><br />The real surprise was the rhetorical reversal. We have gone from 'shirt fronting' to 'Good on Russia' . I am amazed. You bet me am.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-51427319277054977772014-11-10T17:17:39.470+11:002014-11-10T17:17:39.470+11:00The reliance on polls as the font of all political...The reliance on polls as the font of all political wisdom has been driving me crazy for years. The low numbers surveyed and the correspondingly high margin of error ought to give pause for thought to start with. <br />Then there is the narrow range of the questions - Who is your preferred prime minister out of Abbott and Shorten? The answer neither of them is not recorded.<br />Then there is the insistence on reducing everything to two party preferred, when, for a long time now that has been irrelevant in many seats and in the senate. A classic example is the upcoming by-election in the SA state seat of Fisher - held by an independent for many years. Two party preferred figures are redundant as any kind of guide.<br />Lazy arse journalism at its worst.JBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-68025740847395320562014-11-10T13:46:15.665+11:002014-11-10T13:46:15.665+11:00The funny thing about Fairfax chortling about how ...The funny thing about Fairfax chortling about how well Tony was doing and how well he and his mates had closed the poll gap was that the very next day Newspoll came out with an exactly contradictory trend that showed Labor increasing their lead, Tony less popular and Bill more popular.<br /><br />Ironic.<br /><br /><br /><br />fredAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-24093946362201798462014-11-10T11:58:59.027+11:002014-11-10T11:58:59.027+11:00We are not being governed. We are being gamed. The...We are not being governed. We are being gamed. The more the Gallery reports on the "Game" aspect, the more the game becomes entrenched.<br /><br />On Insiders recently the panel celebrated Abbott's triumph in the Carbon policy wars. They agreed as one that because electricity consumption is lowering that the 5% target would be an easy get. Sure, the Insiders thought, it's going down because manufacturing is almost extinct, but whoo-hoo! Wasn't it clever of Abbott to see that? Achieving the 5% target will be another check-box Tony can tick off. He should go up in the polls when that happens. Just youse watch.<br /><br />Meanwhile, thousands are out of work, growth industries like Alternative Energy have seen investment go off a cliff, the NBN has been gutted in favour of century-old technology, and El Nino is about to grip the land... but who cares? It's a political win for Abbott.<br /><br />The Coalition *is not governing*. They are playing games: photo-ops, one-off deals, denialism in all its forms... and now they are playing at tin soldiers and toy aeroplanes (when their troops get visas, that is). Barrie Cassidy said that the SAS is about to enter Iraq. He's been saying that every Sunday for for three months. I guess it'll come true one day, when all other possibilities have been exhausted. Another tick.<br /><br />There was no question in the Ipsos poll on the Middle East Reality TV show - where our fighters drop few bombs and our elite soldiers sit around playing Euchre in camps outside Dubai waiting for the nod from a reluctant Iraqi government. Yet the Gallery assumed Abbott was doing well because of just that. A military Big Brother, given the same treatment as the real(?) Big Brother - promos, excitement, AFP raids and vroom-vroom all in it to make up the package. But with nothing_actually_happening.<br /><br />That's this government right through: nothing happens, and the Gallery cheers them on because the government does nothing so well. Meanwhile a once prosperous nation huddles in fear from 17 year-old Ginger Jihadis, cheers on our brave troops and rewards the Prime Minister- who has done little more than show that he was perhaps a passable student politician, 40 years ago - with a weekly poll blip<br /><br />The key to Reality TV is that you suspend disbelief for an hour to indulge yourselves that it's kinda-sorta real. Will Blake marry Bimbo? Will Tony shirt-front Putin? It's all the same thing. It really is. Crap.Bushfire Billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-38521023905196642992014-11-10T11:47:53.939+11:002014-11-10T11:47:53.939+11:00That was worth waiting for, thanks Andrew.
Thought...That was worth waiting for, thanks Andrew.<br />Thought we might have lost you for a while there.<br />Always look forward to you lucid analytical rants with rare anticipation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-73741433019553016462014-11-10T11:25:14.962+11:002014-11-10T11:25:14.962+11:00Andrew Meares does an excellent job of photgraphin...Andrew Meares does an excellent job of photgraphing Abbott "poses here, he poses there, an achieves very little anywhere."<br /><br />Thanks for pointing out that Abbott is rooting for Labor state governments - it's easier to wreck social infrastructure with a ready made whipping boy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-73840017959633391692014-11-10T10:55:10.668+11:002014-11-10T10:55:10.668+11:00Analysing statistics like opinion polls is not tha...Analysing statistics like opinion polls is not that difficult. However it helps if you have a 'numerical' outlook. It seems none of the journalists you quote get it.<br /><br />Abbott's response to Ebola is quite simple: the best way to fight a disease occurring in other countries when your total focus is on domestic politics is to screen it out. Stop 'our' people going there, and stop 'their' people coming here.<br /><br />Not like a war at all.Iannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-53135658431162960232014-11-10T09:08:14.307+11:002014-11-10T09:08:14.307+11:00Brilliant as usual Andrew. I loved the line about ...Brilliant as usual Andrew. I loved the line about gin and cat food, but it's the sharpness and depth of your analysis that is most impressive. Thank you.Jannoreply@blogger.com