tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post7051751775265976189..comments2023-12-06T00:23:28.790+11:00Comments on Press gallery reform: Andrew Elderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-71911498792065686412009-09-26T21:57:32.616+10:002009-09-26T21:57:32.616+10:00You might be right, but for the wrong reasons.
T...You might be right, but for the wrong reasons. <br /><br />The DLP were always overestimated, and your point about the decline of the DLP in the '70s undermines your own argument. Your thesis needs to have the Liberals as less flexible than the ALP, so we'll see.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-132847057028457422009-09-25T22:02:43.916+10:002009-09-25T22:02:43.916+10:00Andrew Elder says:
Jack, you clearly didn't r...Andrew Elder says:<br /><br /><i>Jack, you clearly didn't read my post on LP. Baby boomers are not a lock for Labor, and nor are NESB migrants. All that's happened is that the historical aberration of the Cold War has passed, and that they have stood up on other issues where they used to be easybeats (e.g. law & order). </i><br /><br />Andrew,<br /><br />I did read it. Just dont think it is true. <br /><br />You clearly didnt follow the links I posted on this blog. The <a rel="nofollow">Watson study</a> is pretty convincing evidence of a major demographic shift underlying the ALP's dominance at both state and federal levels of government since 1983. My own observation is that year was, not coincidentally, the year the last of the Baby Boomer cohort (1946-65) attained their majority for voting rights. <br /><br />The evidence for a systematic pro-ALP amongst NESB's is incontrovertible. See Birrell's work on this subject, <a href="http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb4932/is_2_13/ai_n29197901/?tag=content;col1" rel="nofollow">Labor's shrinking constituency</a> (he was talking about ESB working class workers.)<br /><br />Single mothers are another somewhat more controversial demographic. I dont have conclusive evidence, merely an anecdotal hunch plus suggestive evidence.<br /><br />The Cold War ceased to be a decisive political factor in AUS partisan alignment with the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Labor_Party_(historical)#History" rel="nofollow">decline of the DLP</a>, which occurred in the mid-seventies, not the mid-eighties. You may remember that AUS politics of the mid-seventies to the mid-eighties was dominated by a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Fraser#Rise_to_Leadership" rel="nofollow">rangy fellow</a> who was the anti-thesis and nemesis of the ALP.<br /><br />The Baby Boomers political shift to the ALP is based on a bias in psephological partisanship rather than fevered ideological commitment. The "for-ever young" cohort simply cannot bring the better part of themselves to vote for the parties identified with older, white, straight, Christian, monarchist, males. That does not imply their antipathy to the Right-wing policies of those parties. (Hence the extraordinary support for the ultra conservative Kevin (mini-me-too) Rudd.)<br /><br />No one doubts that, since the mid-seventies, single mothers and NESB's have become a large and growing part of AUS's demographic structure. They are also congenitally biased (ie "rusted on") towards the ALP. There are no obvious pro-L/NP demographics available for comparable political exploitation.<br /><br />I am not, and have never, argued that Baby Boomers are "Left-wing" (ie want to empower lower-status) on most policy issues. Quite the opposite, I have argued the Baby Boomers are quite Right-wing on economics, they will let very little stand in their way in the pursuit of material self-interest. And they have <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20041031060547/www.badanalysis.com/catallaxy/archives/000666.html" rel="nofollow">shifted to the Right on cultural policy</a>, under the weight of overwhelming evidence, in order to protect property values and one point six trophy children.<br /><br />This explains their general support for hard-nosed "tough on crime" and mutual obligation social policies.<br /><br />So I predict we will continue to see a strong tendency towards ALP governments being re-elected at the state level. And the Rudd administration will most likely enjoy <a href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/02/15/talent-much/#comment-636100" rel="nofollow">three terms in office</a>.jack strocchihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17534084770633227131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-1014058146451479672009-09-25T06:21:41.959+10:002009-09-25T06:21:41.959+10:00Jack, you clearly didn't read my post on LP. B...Jack, you clearly didn't read my post on LP. Baby boomers are not a lock for Labor, and nor are NESB migrants. All that's happened is that the historical aberration of the Cold War has passed, and that they have stood up on other issues where they used to be easybeats (e.g. law & order). <br /><br />Start a blog to post your articles of interest.Andrew Elderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04705844456819481896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22534369.post-63125153840199458672009-09-24T22:58:35.696+10:002009-09-24T22:58:35.696+10:00Andrew Elder says:
Labor talks about "born-t...Andrew Elder says:<br /><br /><i>Labor talks about "born-to-rule" a lot. It accuses the Liberals of having this attitude, but frankly those supposedly born to rule have little example of actually governing. Victorian Labor used to grouse about the Liberals in similar fashion, but when you consider how much of a lock the Victorian Liberals had on that state's government until the last quarter century.</i><br /><br />Frankly, the ALP's lock on office would frighten me if were not so full of obvious time-servers and underwhelming political pygmies.<br /><br />I have argued on numerous occasions that the AUS polity is evolving towards a <a href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/06/02/anna-blighs-privatisation-train-will-run-off-the-rails/#comment-765038" rel="nofollow">one-party state</a> with the <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20050624010331/www.crikey.com.au/articles/2003/11/24-0007.html" rel="nofollow">ALP becoming the Natural Party of Government</a>. Largely due to demographic changes: cohort (<a href="http://www.ianwatson.com.au/pubs/watson_age_voting_report_mar08.pdf" rel="nofollow">Baby Boomers replacing Depression-War Gloomers</a>), gender (<a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2007/12/10/morgan-in-the-age-of-rudd-%E2%80%93-and-a-few-oddities/" rel="nofollow">single mother households</a>) and race (NESB immigrants). <br /><br />BTW, This is a damn good blog and deserves more patronage. <br /><br />Also, what is your email for forwarding items of interest? <<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_homo" rel="nofollow">no homo</a>> <a href="http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Seinfeld#The_Outing_.5B4.17.5D" rel="nofollow">NTTAWWT</a>jack strocchihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17534084770633227131noreply@blogger.com