Someone like Arbib would have heard Wilkie's high-minded position on pokies during last year's negotiations on government and known immediately that it was a dagger at the heart of two of Labor's major sources of funding: pubs and clubs. Aside from unions and property developers, NSW Labor's major funding sources are the alcohol industry and the outlets that sell it. NSW Labor have been extraordinarily generous in handing out pokie licenses to pubs and clubs, which have in turn donated millions of dollars to NSW Labor, and so on. The overlap between members of licensed clubs and those who vote Labor is significant, to say the least.
In the absence of a Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Imposing Limits on Poker Machine Gambling, someone like Arbib should have done the groundwork with pubs and clubs and the gambling treatment lobby, proving himself to be the sort of deft politician that he and others imagine him to be. He couldabeen someone who solves problems rather than someone who runs away from them shrieking "it wasn't me!". He couldabeen indispensable, the sort of power-behind-the-throne that Graham Richardson was after the 1990 election. All gone, and too late now.
Who else could have seen this policy through? All the other factional wide boys were busy with actual policy, in communications or financial planning or whatever. Arbib is the Minister for Sport, for goodness sake: what else does he have to do? The Minister for Sport doesn't re-engineer the economy or comfort the stricken. The Minister for Sport doles out cash to popular sports in the hope that the popularity of that sport might rub off onto the Minister and his party. It isn't like he was organising some nationwide effort to curb obesity or get people engaged in mutual community activities or something.
Arbib's political antennae should have been twitching overtime at an issue like this - if he had any.
Because Arbib has botched it - and he has - the government is bogged down yet again, in an issue that shouldn't be such a big deal. Yet again Arbib can project his political failure onto the leader silly enough to accept his backing. Just as he advised Rudd to drop the ETS, then blamed him for dropping the ETS. Now he can blame Gillard for botching the relationship with sporting clubs and take action against her because clubs are so important to NSW Labor, and mate you can't have a leader who goes against NSW Labor, come on.
It is an understatement to say that AFL identities like Eddie McGuire and Jeff Kennett are highly political. It is also true, both in the fact itself and the understatement, to say that of their counterparts in the NRL. Arbib is the first Federal Sports Minister these guys have openly and blatantly shirtfronted. He must be the first minister in that role to be so blatantly disrespected in living memory. He's finished.
Those sports take millions of dollars from the Federal government, and what does the government get for it? Gillard and Swan, as if they don't have enough to do, are going to have to sweet-talk and bribe a bunch of overstuffed sports administrators because Mark bloody Arbib couldn't execute the little responsibility with which he was entrusted.
Nobody blames the clubs administrators for trying it on, but club members know that's what they're doing: trying it on. Club culture, if you can call it that, is strongest in NSW and Queensland, where Eddie McGuire is just that guy on telly who hypes up an otherwise dull quiz show. In Victoria he has a far more all-pervasive presence, but north of the Murray he is seen as a grifter and if the government stands up to him then respect for the government can only increase.
And the man who helped install Julia Gillard as Prime Minister, former national ALP secretary Karl Bitar is now helping to coordinate the campaign in his new job as a Crown Casino lobbyist.Every last one of those 25 are morons. The clubs pump their propaganda into people's homes but only the truly gullible members really believe it. You have nothing to lose, you people: if ever you were ever a bit frustrated with Karl and Mark, this is your chance to grow some spine and save both yourselves and a Labor government (with nothing to lose but, well, Karl and Mark).
Up to 25 Labor MPs are also threatening to vote against the plan in Caucus.
Club members tend to be older people, claiming a public space in their club after being slowly squeezed out of workplaces (through retirement, forced or otherwise) and shops (low income earners don't have much to spend, retail is geared toward younger people). The club nearest my place is dominated by Anglo-Saxon people in a way that the surrounding suburb was but is no longer. They look the other way when confronted with the idea that their club, and all its works, is subsidised by those with serious problems. If Mr Wilkie and the government step in with their loss-limit devices, these people will respect them for doing so.
While Kennett displayed rare gutlessness in allowing tobacco advertising for the Grand Prix, the politicians who banned tobacco sponsorship of sport ran rings around a lazy arseclown like Mark Arbib.
The fruits of Mark Arbib's career can be seen in Macquarie Street. State Labor Opposition Leader John Robertson has a smaller caucus than William Holman before World War I, and Holman left that. It's doubtful that anyone in State Parliament who was also a member of the ALP would buy Arbib a cup of coffee. Those who would stoop and build up NSW Labor with worn-out tools have nothing to thank Mark Arbib for, nothing. A bit like the thousands of members of the Green Jobs Corps, really.
People complain about NSW Labor, but if the Keating-Richardson era NSW Right were still running things Arbib would already be on his way to some remote embassy, a cold-eyed killer would be slotted into the Sport portfolio to rearrange things and warn anyone that one stray word about a policy not directly related to sport might be very, very costly in all sorts of ways, and a chastened non-entity would humbly assume the role of NSW Senator.
So-called savvy Canberra watchers didn't blame Gillard for inviting so few new names into the ministry after the last election, and there is an assumption that all Labor backbenchers are dills like John Murphy. Here are seven Labor federal backbenchers for whom I have no particular brief, but of whom each would be a better than Mark Arbib:
- Laurie Ferguson (in this list from sheer pity, admittedly, but still a superior candidate)
- Ed Husic
- Kirsten Livermore
- Senator Gavin Marshall
- Deb O'Neill
- Julie Owens
- Senator Glenn Sterle
Journalists fail to realise that there is less likely to be a story in a politician who is shooting his mouth off than there is in one who's being very, very quiet. Mark Arbib is being very, very quiet. Journalists are leaving him alone because they are stupid, and they think that when a politician says 'no comment' then all possible avenues for a story are utterly closed, and oh look is that Chris Pyne turning cartwheels in order to draw attention to, um, himself? There was a time when one could simply say 'that's journalism'; but now the sheer slackness of the press gallery is nothing so much as an argument why at least 90% of them should be boiled in their own piss.
Mark Arbib has failed as a minister. He's had four years, longer than Morris Iemma got as Premier. His powers of quiet suasion no longer exist, if they ever did. He is a power vacuum and should be removed before others are sucked in and wedged fast. He should be removed and replaced with ... well, anyone really. The fact that he can't recognise that his own time is up is all the testament you need to the sheer political failure of Mark Arbib.
Donations reform in NSW, where Arbib's from, has done for the old days of funding from the AHA. If you want to understand why the Clubs and big organised pubs are getting into marketing, you've got to understand that their previous hook into power doesn't exist anymore. The new mode of lobbying is loud and it comes in green and gold.
ReplyDeleteLaurie Ferguson (in this list from sheer pity, admittedly, but still a superior candidate)
You're only kidding yourself, now.
I advocated over at The Political Sword, weeks ago, that Mark Arbib should be given the political shiv and replaced with Andrew Demetriou, a good Labor man, as we all know and one who would do the job of Federal Sports Minister proud. I'd be wooing him away from the AFL now that he has put it's latest 5 year plan into place and organising for him to take a Victorian non-performer's place, maybe Maria Vamvakinou or Steve Gibbons, in a By-Election ASAP. Then I'd have a Ministerial Reshuffle as soon as he put his foot in the door of Parliament House, because he would not lose the by-election, even with this government on the nose, and I would also use it as an opportunity to clear out some other dead wood and replace them with some of the above-mentioned.
ReplyDeleteBut I don't have a Masters in Political Science like Arbib, so what would I know? ;)
A sad but accurate account of clown prince Arbib's incompetence. Also unfortunately (but more importantly) of the wider malaise gripping the ALP of which Arbib is merely the latest, and currently most visible symptom.
ReplyDeleteAs a lifelong progressive voter (but no longer a Labor voter) I get no pleasure from the destruction of the left vote that will probably accompany the destruction of a Federal Labor government some time between now and 2013.
Opinion polls are only opinion polls but there is an ominous consistency to the steady decline from 50/50 a year ago to around 56 (Coalition) to 44 Labor (2pp) now. No blips, no volatility just a steadily shrinking vote.
It is clear that the rapidly shrinking band of ALP members (those that have a brain at least) recognize both the problem and its causes but are not ready to accept the consequences. Experiments with pre-selection primaries (for goodness sake) and new think tanks are nothing more than window dressing, distractions.
The problem is that a formerly progressive political party has been captured by right wing 'Whatever it takes' grubs (factional warlords) who are destroying it from within. The first and indispensible step towards Party renewal is to displace these gargoyles and there is no mechanism for achieving this.
This leads me to the conclusion that the absolutely necessary reform of the left can only commence when (sooner or later) ALP members anxious to begin to revive social democracy in Australia split from the ALP to form a social democratic party.
It is possible to feel sorry for Gillard and her generally talented group of senior ministers clustered on the bridge as the ship sinks beneath them. But then you remember that although they want us to forget it they have repeatedly steered the ship onto reef after reef over the last four years. In 2007 the Australian electorate was worshipping at their feet and they buggered it up completely. With all the cards in their hands they blew it.
To digress slightly: Even at this late point they seem oddly determined to minimize the positive achievement they leave behind as a legacy - a sign they they existed and actually did some worthwhile things while in office. Here I refer to the carbon tax -ETS bills they are pursuing - the most important and positive initiative of those blighted government. I gather the bills introduced to the Parliament do not include the renewable energy and Clean Energy Finance Corporation bills which are the most important components of the whole package. I haven't had any responses yet to emails asking why and what is going on. I smell a bit of Labor bastardry here. A determination to show those Greens who is calling the shots. If I'm right Labor has shot itself in the foot one more time, possibly one last time.
Now we are faced with the likelihood of the worst right wing government that I can remember for the forseeable future. Incompetent and confused as this government has been the prospect of Abbott, Brandis, Morrison, Pyne, Mirabella et al calling the shots is enough to make me want to emigrate. Sorry for this unfocused spray but I feel a bit better now. Happy days!
Andrew
ReplyDeletethere I was on the weekend watching the footie and the anti-policy ads, wondering 'how on earth was that allowed to happen?'.
Coorey's piece in yesterday's SMH offered nothing in the way of analysis or explanation.
Thank you for your piece: terrific, again, and absolutely on the money.
Wow! All I can say is what a brilliant, clear, concise piece of writing. Wow! I thought I was the only one who felt this way but now I am chuffed by realising that there are some high principles still existing in the community. It is just a shame that the social conscience of our Government seems to have gone missing in action lately. And you are right ... Mark Arbib and his cohorts can bear a lot of the blame for that. If (when ?) the disgraceful prospect of a Government led by Abbott occurs I hope Mark Arbib is held responsible for the dreadful state we are in.
ReplyDeleteLiam, I'm sure it does - and I'm equally sure that Arbib should've kept on top of developments.
ReplyDeleteDoug, I think the govt is playing a tortoise-and-hare game against the Coalition, and the Coalition are too proud to realise they are being had. Thus the focus on Rudd - they respect Rudd and it is no shame to be beaten by a respected opponent, but they can't stand the fact that Gillard has quietly got things done. The current situation is unsustainable.
Thank you, Peter and Anon.
"It is just a shame that the social conscience of our Government seems to have gone missing in action lately."
ReplyDeletegimme a break,they have picked a fight with big mining,big energy(carbon tax),big tobacco and big gambling.surely they must deserve some credit for courage if not the nouse to conduct the fight.
Andrew,
ReplyDeleteCould you elaborate on the "tortoise and hare" game?
Anon2, I think people are referring to "big refugees"- though you're right about those things, and the proposed scheme to fund disability help.
ReplyDeleteWhich leads me to ...
Bobalot, the disability insurance scheme; the mining tax and carbon, ah, thing; the gambling protection mechanisms - none of these things are in place now but by this time next year it will be silly to say Gillard heads a do-nothing government. The reason why the Libs are praying for Rudd to step up is that they can see their central critique crumbling before their eyes as legislation sails through parliament.
The minority ALP Federal Government is weakened by the need to subvert party policy to the whims of the Greens and Independents. For this reason I feel Gillard has never had her hands on the wheel and thus policy stuffups and flip flops are subject to change and whim depending on who is getting the most electoral mileage via media reporting. Wilkie, for instance, was always going to move against poker machines and ran on that as part of his platform, It wasnt and never was going to be ALP policy. Similarly Climate change policy is the preserve of the Greens, not the ALP who only became interested when there was a revenue raising aspect mentioned to address the empty budgetary tin. The ALP hasnt run the country since the last election result was declared. We are a rudderless ship (no pun intended) but there are some that say given the lack of competency of our current House of Reps its not such a bad thing that no ones really in control.
ReplyDeleteHow much political nouse does the guy have?
ReplyDeleteWell wtf was he doing giving Abbott a photo op playing tennis?
Notus: none to speak of.
ReplyDeleteNumpTy Web Person, let's have you:
ReplyDelete"The minority ALP Federal Government is weakened by the need to subvert party policy to the whims of the Greens and Independents."
What's their alternative, go into Opposition? Why does Labor have well-considered policies and the others just have "whims"?
"For this reason I feel Gillard has never had her hands on the wheel ..."
Menzies and Curtin had to rely on independents, and they are regarded as among the better PMs we've had. Do you reckon Gillard has never truly had her hands on the wheel because she's the first PM whose hands feature nail polish?
"... and thus policy stuffups and flip flops are subject to change and whim depending on who is getting the most electoral mileage via media reporting."
Read that again. You could apply that to Howard or Rudd or any PM in my lifetime. Kind of undoes your thesis about Gillard being tossed and turned by the small fry, doesn't it?
"Wilkie, for instance, was always going to move against poker machines and ran on that as part of his platform, It wasnt and never was going to be ALP policy."
That doesn't make it a whim. Given that the ALP doesn't have a policy on helping people minimise gambling loss risk, maybe they should be more grateful than they appear to be.
"Similarly Climate change policy is the preserve of the Greens, not the ALP who only became interested when there was a revenue raising aspect mentioned to address the empty budgetary tin. "
No, Rudd went to the 2007 election with a policy for action on climate change, including a carbon pricing mechanism (slightly different to what's on offer now, but that debate is being had elsewhere). Many ALP true believers are passionate about climate change, and whatever you think about the issue or how it's handled it is a fallacy to believe that climate change isn't an authentic Labor issue. To say that they had no interest until something was grafted on in 2010 is rubbish.
"The ALP hasnt run the country since the last election result was declared. We are a rudderless ship (no pun intended) but there are some that say given the lack of competency of our current House of Reps its not such a bad thing that no ones really in control."
The place seems to be working fine in terms of passing legislation and committees and debates and all the usual stuff - unless your only experience of the House is the monkey-house that Question Time has become. If you're in a pub and some drunken fool is trying to pick a fight with you, it doesn't necessarily reflect on you or even the pub and maybe the fool - and his mates - needs to have a look at themselves and come under a bit of scrutiny.
@Andrew Elder
ReplyDelete"The place seems to be working fine in terms of passing legislation and committees and debates and all the usual stuff - unless your only experience of the House is the monkey-house that Question Time has become. If you're in a pub and some drunken fool is trying to pick a fight with you, it doesn't necessarily reflect on you or even the pub and maybe the fool - and his mates - needs to have a look at themselves and come under a bit of scrutiny."
Couldn't agree more with this but it prompts some questions. Given the first part of your comment: Why do you think Labor's stocks are so low and apparently firmly anchored there? Shaun Carney's article today http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/adrift-at-all-levels-its-time-for-a-change-at-the-alp-20110930-1l1b9.html makes quite depressing reading on this topic. The tortoise and hare thing might be Labor's hope for a path back into the light (and maybe it will work) but why are they in the hole in the first place?
Given the second part of your comment: Why do you think Labor is completely unable to land a punch on the opposition? There appears to be no shortage of ammunition to fire against the smirking rabble on the other side but despite the best attempts of Albanese, Combet, and Gillard the public doesn't seem to be listening.
Doug, I've just read the Carney piece.
ReplyDeletePeople have always been able to separate state and federal issues, it's one of the great exercises in straw-man work to assert otherwise. SA and Qld have reached the end of their useful lives, where it's fair to assume that any shortcomings of the incumbents would and should have been fixed by now. Brumby lost because people were sick of hearing that the issues they raised were figments of their imaginations.
The government shouldn't try to land a punch on the opposition. The old verities of media management quite simply no longer apply. In the case of this opposition, passing a few big pieces of legislation and getting some programs done will mean that their central argument (that this government can't get anything done) evaporates. The focus then goes onto their risk-aversion, which the sillier members of the press gallery confuse with confidence and strength.
According to Yahoo News, the government's poor polling stems from its pushing the carbon tax. Now, I would say that any media outlet that calls the carbon pricing policy a carbon tax is displaying a right-wing bias, as it plays right into Tony Abbott's hands. The real problem for the government then is the right-wing bias throughout the media, including the ABC. Now, the ABC is something over which the government does have some control, so my advice to the government would be to purge the ABC board of its Howard appointees and replace it with political neutrals. What puzzles me is why Gillard has never attempted this.
ReplyDeleteOnce the carbon pricing legislation gets through, Abbott's ineffectiveness should become apparent, and the government's polling should pick up. I think the government knows this, and is prepared to ride the poor polling out till the end of the year.
The other major cause of the government's poor polling is its stance on asylum seekers. As obnoxious as this appears to be, I think there may be some political sense to this. Several days ago I heard Tony Jones mention that Labor was wedging Tony Abbott on the asylum seeker issue, showing him up as a compassion-free reactionary, and while the government may appear to be compassion-free also, I think the government will move towards the left on this issue as they will be forced to obey the high court ruling and legislate for onshore processing. Indeed I have heard Chris Bowen on a couple of occasions mention that onshore processing seems inevitable and he has castigated Tony Abbott for his intransigence. So I expect the polls to improve for Labor when they sort out the asylum seeker issue.
If the polls don't improve by the end of the year even after onshore processing and carbon pricing legislation are passed, then it will be rather obvious that it is the media that have been driving the negative polling all along. At this point I think the government will be forced to act on cleaning out the ABC as well as trying to rectify media ownership issues.