Armed with The Mackerras Pendulum, let's name the seats that Labor will actually win at the NSW State election. Starting at the top left:
- Lakemba? Yeah, probably.
- Marrickville? No. The Deputy Premier running as an independent is stupid, Greens will win that.
- Cabramatta? Like Lakemba the incumbent is a nothing person, but Dai Le has been on the ground for some time and has to be regarded as a real chance. Will probably end up as Labor's most marginal seat.
- Auburn? Canterbury? Liverpool? Go on, probably.
- Shellharbour? Labor people in the Illawarra are seriously weird. Anyone's game.
- Bankstown? Anyone's. Time for Jason Clare to step up and grow some coat-tails. I can still remember a Liberal MP for Bass Hill and you'd be a fool to bet against it.
- Mount Druitt? Yeah.
- Wollongong? People feel sorry for Noreen Hay, Labor should be scared to choose anyone else from that region because they're doubtful.
- Heffron? Princess Wonkyhair has a profile that can't be beaten but the Liberal should run her close, very close.
- Blacktown? Anyone's. Labor should win but the candidate is John Robertson. A Liberal Member for Blacktown, imagine that.
- Keira? No. Locals will vote for mighty John Dorahy ahead of weird Labor machine-thing.
- Fairfield? Campbelltown? Oh, all right.
- Balmain? Are you serious? Last week, Firth and Chesher were a well-to-do yuppie couple; at Easter they'll both be unemployed (Firth isn't eligible for a pension). Oh dear.
- Newcastle? Kogarah? No and no.
- Maroubra? Maybe.
- Wallsend and Smithfield? Just.
- Strathfield? No hope. Lake Macquarie? Uh-uh. Charlestown? No.
- Toongabbie? People will vote for Rees out of sheer pity, unless he headbutts some old lady.
Let's leave it there, it's not worth going on. 13 definites for Labor and they'll be lucky to get that far. It's too much to hope that the buggers would eventually be grateful.