11 August 2013

Tony Abbott's full support

... and if
I tread upon your feet you just say so
'cause you're The Captain, I am no-one,
I tend to feel as though I owe one to you


- Kasey Chambers The Captain
Labor have had their share of "captain's picks": Julia Gillard nominated Nova Peris to fill a Senate seat that the incumbent hasn't realised was being vacated, and Kevin Rudd picked Jason Li and Peter Beattie ahead of preselected Labor candidates in Bennelong and Forde respectively. His actions against Labor-endorsed candidates in Hotham and Kennedy are works in progress. The wisdom of each and the capacity for a parliamentary leader to do this under party rules is a matter for "W(h)ither Labor?" commentary elsewhere. What's interesting is the contrast with Abbott in working internal party processes in terms of fundamental political competence.

Before it was dissolved for the election there were 226 members of federal parliament. Most came up through pre-existing political parties: doing their time at branch functions, working the networks of their parties in order to secure preselection, and then contest election to join the select few in Federal Parliament. Independents have to build their own machinery but the principle is similar. Every MHR and Senator regards having and maintaining a political support network as crucial to securing a seat in parliament, and the absence of same is a personal political failure at the most basic level. Those who lose preselection may incur sympathy for a short while but they are essentially dead politicians walking.

Abbott has made no "captain's picks" for the Coalition. Most of his front bench gets its credibility from having been Howard government ministers. Many of his backbenchers had been staffers to ministers in said government. What's remarkable about Abbott is that having the leader's support in a preselection is nothing like a guarantee of success, and that not having his support is no guarantee of failure:
Most Coalition MPs, and the Senators up for re-election this time, have secured their own preselection without any support or hindrance from their "leader". This is why the subtle and multi-faceted attempt by conservatives in Indi to knock off Sophie Mirabella is so fascinating.

On the face of it, Mirabella is unassailable. She is, and has been at every election since 2001, the preselected Liberal candidate for Indi. That electorate was held by a former Governor-General (Isaac Isaacs) and a former Prime Minister (John McEwen), both arch-protectionists. This may explain why she has ditched the small-government rhetoric of her student days, and instead sees her job as donating public money to badly-run industries like car manufacturing and food processing (though offering less support than Labor is, and while criticising Labor for not doing enough).

Mirabella and Tony Abbott developed a strong bond as monarchists in the lead-up to the 1999 referendum, and now she is a senior member of shadow cabinet - one of the few who was not a minister under Howard. Note that Abbott has not flatly contradicted her policy positions in the way that he has with those of, say, Joe Hockey or Eric Abetz.

The traditional methods that a party uses to get rid of dud candidates have failed. Nobody within the local Liberal branches has put up their hand as an alternative, nor is anybody stacking them to dilute Mirabella's grasp. She clearly has the numbers in local branches and any frontal assault on her would be heavily resisted by 104 Exhibition Street (the address of and synecdoche for Liberal headquarters in Melbourne). Instead, Cathy McGowan and Jennifer Podesta have decided to contest Indi using their own means rather than those of the Liberal Party (or persuading the Victorian Nationals to take the chance on them). McGowan has been endorsed by Tony Windsor, and seems to be offering a similarly pragmatic approach while being her own person.

What does this mean for Abbott? If he can't defend Mirabella, he can't defend anyone.

Mirabella is one of Abbott's longest and most ardent supporters. No Liberal leader other than Abbott has rated her as front bench material, and no future leader would foreseeably prefer her over others. She feels as though her service to the community, while necessary, is insufficient for her talents. Abbott's outlook on the Liberal Party, Australia and life in general are pretty much hers to a greater extent than is true for other Liberals. Even people who loathe Mirabella, but who can appreciate loyalty and why it's important, would have to agree Mirabella has been loyal to Abbott.

The contrast with Howard, supposedly Abbott's role model, is telling. Through sheer longevity John Howard would've had sufficient contacts in northeastern Victoria to gauge the depth and breadth of the problem confronting Indi conservatives. They clearly don't feel Mirabella is representing them. He would've had quiet words with the right people and either given Mirabella a final warning to lift her game or else thrown her to the wolves, rather than lose a seat the Coalition has held for eight decades - part of its 'furniture', if you will.

Abbott can't return Mirabella's loyalty and help secure her immediate political future because he's just not smart enough or strong enough to do so. Abbott has no connection, let alone suasion, with the sorts of people who are backing McGowan and/or Podesta. They have money and a local presence to match - more than match - the Liberal Party in that area. It's crazy that the Victorian Liberals have to divert resources away from La Trobe or Dunkley in order to sandbag Indi; it's political failure that it has come to this, and Abbott shares the blame for that.

When the Gillard government proposed a referendum to recognise local government in the Constitution, Abbott was initially supportive. It fits with his centralist agenda, particularly in health policy where he proposes individual boards for local hospitals. When a Labor government last proposed this measure, in 1988, Abbott was not only not a member of the Liberal Party but was flirting with the idea of joining Labor - and NSW Labor at that.

Those who were party members back then, and who still are, trot out the same arguments against the proposal as they did back then. Rudd has shelved the referendum for now but this does not mean it is off the agenda. What was interesting is that they did not flatly contradict Abbott; rather, they made their case as though he had not spoken, as though his was just another opinion rather than the decisive one on the Coalition side.

"When it comes to [DisabilityCare]", said Abbott, "I am Dr Yes". Coalition MPs continued to talk about it as though the policy was an optional extra, an act of charity rather than a reliably-funded rights-based system, which is a fundamental failure to understand the basis of that policy. As a result, the Coalition can fairly be regarded as having a weak commitment to DisabilityCare and its future is uncertain should they win this election. Abbott has allowed his party to put him into this weak position, and he can't get out of it.

Abbott was elected as leader of his party on the basis that climate change is crap. His Direct Action policy threatens havoc on economic credentials without doing a damn thing for his environmental credentials. The Liberals who elected Tony Abbott did not elect him to be this namby-pamby centrist, yet insofar as Abbott has any policy stance at all this is where he finds himself.

His last big stand was against same-sex marriage, but that will go ahead regardless of what Tony Abbott says or does.

Leaders make things happen. They have real victories in real fights, not choreographed spats with cream-puffs. Tony Abbott is a weak leader. When he says that he has a commitment to this or that policy, or that he will work for this or that group of people, you have to assess that against who and what he is prepared to die in a ditch for.

25 comments:

  1. Andrew, what do you think would be the practical effect of this if (god help us) we get an Abbott government?

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    1. Nothing he promises will come to pass, basically, and they will sneak in rightwing policies because preselections result in further-right candidates getting up. But, he won't win.

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    2. You reckon? Right now, I get the impression that Abbott is building the sort of 'give me the benefit of the doubt' credibility that he needs for the voters to have confidence that they can actually vote Labor out. Almost like he's presenting as less wacky than Mark Latham and therefore he may just be worth taking a chance on. He's running as a steady pair of hands that won't do much but at least will be better than the current mob. He still seems vaccuous and weak and bereft of ideas, but I'm starting to think that he might have enough to get over the line.

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  2. It's a shame about Patrick Secker, he was a stand out liberal in that seat from the time he took in the first group of Afghans into Murray Bridge, got them jobs and supported them in spite of Ruddock saying he shouldn't. He kept that up the next 12 years and I suspect he will be missed when they put in a nobody.

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    1. Secker lost a lot of support from SA River locals a few years ago when he came out against increasing water flows into the Murray.
      Then was much muttering and murmuring.

      fred

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  3. The only thing that Abbott has going for him, as demonstrated by the three years against Gillard, he is a do nothing and a can do nothing. He completely deserted the battlefield on literally every progressive policy fronted up by Labor. Most of these new programs couldnt even get done in majority government, yet with conservative absence, 10 years worth of progressive policy made its way through in less than 3. Truly admirable.

    If he is so impotent in opposition, I truly wonder what people think he will achieve in Government? Does being a head kicker get your policy across the line? Will that help reverse the carbon trading scheme, NBN, mining tax and the plethora of other things he has sworn to axe? No doubt his enthusiasm for all this will fizz out when the economic reality dawns on him.

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    1. david I doubt the reality would dawn on him, spend spend,,,they did before will do it again in 81,,with howard as treasurer the int rates where around 15 percent by the middle of the 80 we had to sell our home, mr hawke was then in and worked so hard to change things around the liberal spend on nothing that is for the future, Iraq war is a bit example the gst would I fear have to go to 20 percent,\

      read my post also below about forums apparently the liberals sit mute as they have no policy while the labor person speaks , good for us but aren't they not stupid, people must be told in adds the libs have NO polcicies this must be a first for an opp, Menzies would turn over in his grave.

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  4. I am alarmed to see the moderate Liberals walk out and the likes of Sophie Mirabella walk in.

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  5. Jason Li is a great pick sadly that will go unoticed!!

    He is not a party hack and is a smart guy with an outstanding c.v to boot!

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    1. I endorse the above comment. I noticed Jason Li years ago. He is a remarkable person. I hope he is elected. He could be a future PM.

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    2. Jason Yat Sen Li

      An absolute star in the making!!

      Watch this space with this guy, i have known about him for many years also.

      The future looks very bright indeed with people like him.

      Cheers

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  6. And it seems to be all over in my electorate of Greenway after the telling effort of Jaymes Diaz last week. The latest from the local rags is that Jaymes has gone into hiding in a safe house, with his dad Jess defending him from the media. I really hope Jaymes gets the ribbing he deserves.

    Hopefully this means that the incumbent, Michelle Rowland, will have a clearer majority the second time round. I admire that as a politician she set out and achieved the items she promised last election. Whether the other residents around here have noticed this is another question...

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    1. Well, Jaymes has come out of hiding as I met him handing out pamphlets at the train station this morning. When I asked him how the six points were going, he responded with "we all make mistakes". "True.", I replied, "It's also true that you should know what you're actually trying to sell, isn't it?", to which he had no response.

      So here we have a Liberal candidate who is not at all across his Party's plans (I will not call them policies as you have said all along Andrew, they have not done any policy work) being defended by the leader of the party himself, Tony Abbott even shaking his hand in front of the TV cameras at Penrith this afternoon to try to help get him out of yet another awkward situation.

      This speaks volumes for the Liberal Party, its leader, what for them constitutes an acceptable level of candidate, and therefore what they think of the public.

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  7. I do so enjoy it when you write about Sophie. You never descend into the 'root and loot' nastiness of other bloggers but you dissect her with precision and flair. it is a pleasure to read. I can't see how she can lose the seat but if she did it would make my year.

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  8. The electors in the back blocks of Indi who hate Mirabella with a passion are muttering McGowan's name.

    If Mirabella visited the deep valleys in the hinterland she would be lucky to be laughed at, most likely to receive a cold shoulder, perhaps a feral would spit at her.

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  9. I hope you are right Andrew and we are spared TA. The alternative gives me no joy either. I live in a very safe Liberal seat which never changes so I have never had a voice. In recent years I have voted Informal, in part because I am disgusted by the demonization of asylum seekers. It is a difficult issue for any government but the manner in which both parties pander to and encourage fear and prejudice is mortifying. I find it personally offensive to be treated as a mug. Surely Australians are not the stupid, racist, self-interested, complacent mob our leaders seem to believe we are? I think we are capable of listening to rational debate on important matters like national infrastructure, immigration, taxation without leaders pressing alarm bells. That debate the other night was an absolute disgrace. It was not a debate. It involved two desperadoes in team ties and pancake standing at lecterns telling us exactly nothing. They were wooden, their hand gestures were choreographed, Abbott's girl-band one-finger point at the end of his wind-up was excruciating, even he looked embarrassed. Where was Julia Gillard when we needed her. I think I will be voting One Julia Gillard on the ballot slip.

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    1. Have you forgotten that it was Gillard who started the racist race to the bottom of the barrel with refugees in 2010 when she claimed that proper migrants like her parents don't want refugees from the Taliban to have special privileges or advantages? She wanted the East Timor deal, then the dirty Malaysia deal, then the illegal one we have now.

      And the media in the main pander just as much.

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    2. Oh shut up Marilyn. I thought Anon. @07:02's comment was admirable, unlike yours.

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    3. Yes anon, you are quite right. I had forgotten. It didn't take long either. Thanks for the reminder.

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    4. Marilyn is incapable of engaging in any form of discussion without referring to refugees.

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  10. I do so enjoy your stuff, it makes me think for a few minutes that Abbott won't win in a Landslide and go on for several more terms. And then I finish reading your article and remember where I am and what's happening. I so hope you are right, but I just can't see it.

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  11. Andrew heard about a forum in a large seat somewhere in aus. that was held on policy the liberal person sat there mute as they had no policy to speak on

    how can an opp go to an election with no policies also
    one add I saw was we will stop the boats, as far as I know the have stopped
    just thought I fill you in a little trivia

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  12. With the polls showing a LNP win how are you confident that Abbott will not be the next Prime Minister?

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    1. Because retail polls are bullshit and Abbott is not good enough to do that demanding job.

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    2. Andrew, I agree with you about polls and Abbott's ability, but Abbott is a champion bullshitter, and he has all the MSM onside. Much as I hate the thought of it, I've resigned myself to an Abbott government (although I think he'll be a oncer).

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