04 February 2011

Naming names

Armed with The Mackerras Pendulum, let's name the seats that Labor will actually win at the NSW State election. Starting at the top left:

  • Lakemba? Yeah, probably.

  • Marrickville? No. The Deputy Premier running as an independent is stupid, Greens will win that.

  • Cabramatta? Like Lakemba the incumbent is a nothing person, but Dai Le has been on the ground for some time and has to be regarded as a real chance. Will probably end up as Labor's most marginal seat.

  • Auburn? Canterbury? Liverpool? Go on, probably.

  • Shellharbour? Labor people in the Illawarra are seriously weird. Anyone's game.

  • Bankstown? Anyone's. Time for Jason Clare to step up and grow some coat-tails. I can still remember a Liberal MP for Bass Hill and you'd be a fool to bet against it.

  • Mount Druitt? Yeah.

  • Wollongong? People feel sorry for Noreen Hay, Labor should be scared to choose anyone else from that region because they're doubtful.

  • Heffron? Princess Wonkyhair has a profile that can't be beaten but the Liberal should run her close, very close.

  • Blacktown? Anyone's. Labor should win but the candidate is John Robertson. A Liberal Member for Blacktown, imagine that.

  • Keira? No. Locals will vote for mighty John Dorahy ahead of weird Labor machine-thing.

  • Fairfield? Campbelltown? Oh, all right.

  • Balmain? Are you serious? Last week, Firth and Chesher were a well-to-do yuppie couple; at Easter they'll both be unemployed (Firth isn't eligible for a pension). Oh dear.

  • Newcastle? Kogarah? No and no.

  • Maroubra? Maybe.

  • Wallsend and Smithfield? Just.

  • Strathfield? No hope. Lake Macquarie? Uh-uh. Charlestown? No.

  • Toongabbie? People will vote for Rees out of sheer pity, unless he headbutts some old lady.

Let's leave it there, it's not worth going on. 13 definites for Labor and they'll be lucky to get that far. It's too much to hope that the buggers would eventually be grateful.


  1. I think you're wrong about Kogarah and Keira.
    East Hills, Oatley and Parramatta are all worth speculating on IMO.

  2. The very thought that it comes down to this makes me dizzy, Liam.

  3. I have a similar reaction, though a bit lower down. As the song goes, maybe in the stomach, maybe the liver, maybe even in the colon.

  4. Can NSW Labor beat the Progressive Conservative Party's percentage shift in seats lost? I'd put five bob on the chance of it... like the old surf tune goes, "hahahahahahaha-wipeout!"

  5. Worth noting that Bass Hill was always slightly better for Liberal (the booth's there are only around 65% compared to around 75% for the seat in general) than Bankstown and the demographics are different from the 80's with a lot more immigrants. I still think it'll go Labor.

    Keira will probably cop a huge swing, but the fact that the Greens poll well here may mean that Labor's still a decent chance under OPV despite Campbell retiring and the Libs putting up an ex-footy player in a league mad town. You can't predict that seat for certain.

    Hunter people think strangely too, so Charlestown may still survive. Other than that, there's probably good calls.

  6. You haven't ventured up to the Central Coast, Andrew?
    I'd punt on the ALP retaining the seat centred on Wyong. Lots of Public Housing. As for Gosford. Retiring Member, hopeless new candidate out of the still alive(sadly) Belinda Neal/John Della Bosca faction. Ergo, it's gawn! And I have told them as much too.

  7. Morgan: no comment on Bass Hill, we'll see. You'd be a fool to take migrants for granted.

    On Keira, read that paragraph again and tell me it doesn't foretell a split of ALP-Green votes that could let a third party up the middle. People would vote for Dorahy no matter who he ran with.

    In the Hunter, I think their independents have got their act together and we may not see a Labor resurgence for some time.

    Victoria: if I'd listed all the ALP seats that would go, I'd be here all day. I think all four Coast seats will go Liberal. I was a founding member of Central Coast Young Liberals in 1986.

  8. I've been around politics for some time, long enough to not want a bar of it any more. I've taken to caring more about other endeavours, such as food, shelter, electricity and strong drink. That said, there will be surprises under optional preferential voting and not all seats lost by the ALP will be won by Liberals. My bold predeiction is that Steve Whan, whose family is part of local legend, will hold Monaro. What would be an interesting psephological exercise Mr Elder would be a rough list of seats in which independents stand something of a chance. I am aware of Janet Mays in Blue Mountains, Mayor Tate in Newcastle and "Timmy" O'Toole in Bathurst - and The Entrance, WOllondilly and Wyong apparently have some likely types - but through the wonders of teh interwebs your glorious readers may wish to regale us with some more?